I analyze all sorts of blackjack strategies and rank them for your fun and profit.

Hit, and your soft 16 is nearly a breakeven hand with an average loss of only eight-tenth s of a percent. By standing on soft 16, the player at my table turned a nearly neutral hand into a just another awful 16. 10: The average loss is 54.0 cents if you stand, and that’s reduced to 21.0 cents if you hit. Blackjack Odds: Playing Hit or Stand will improve your blackjack strategy, and increase your chances of winning money. However, unless you count cards, the odds of blackjack are against you, even if you are a perfect player. By chance, the outcome may sway in your favor from time to time; but the rule is: the more you gamble the more money you.

In every single movie about Las Vegas and the gangsters that run it, some character says to another character, “The house always wins.”

Yet that doesn’t stop all of us from trying to beat the casino. Specifically blackjack. We all think we’re better than blackjack.

We’re not, of course. But we think we are. I compiled this list of 11 popular strategies for beating blackjack and ranked them here, starting with the least effective and building toward the most effective.

11 Superstitions

I’ve seen tons of blackjack superstitions. None of these actually do anything — but either do lucky shirts, avoiding black cats, turning off the light switch three times to keep Charlie from dying, or any of the other day-to-day superstitions people swear by.

So it’s not going to change your blackjack fortunes if you violate your superstitions — even if you let new players enter during a shoe… you don’t bother saying “Nice hit” to someone who gets a six on a 15… you wish yourself good luck on your first-card ace… you tap twice instead of scratching the felt to hit… or forget your lucky cowboy hat. Gamblor is immune to superstition.

10 Gut feelings

It seems that most people who sit down at a blackjack table have a rough understanding of textbook blackjack strategy. At least on the most basic level. The “gut feelings” strategy is a mix of playing with basic blackjack strategy but also having feelings. For example: “I’m going to stay on this 16, I just know the next card is a 10.” (I’ve seen my friend Bruce almost attack people for that statement. More than once.)

The problem here, from a mathematical perspective — aka my favorite perspective — is that blackjack strategy is constructed to give you an edge if you adhere to it without deviation and play for a long, long time. It’s like a thousand monkeys on a thousand typewriters — eventually they’re going to write A Tale of Two Cities. But as soon as you deviate from the strategy for a gut feeling, that’s like telling your monkeys that they’re now trying to accidentally write Sarah Palin’s Going Rogue: An American Life.

9 Easy card counting

I have three different levels of card counting on this list, because not all card counting is created equal. Some methods are so basic that you can learn them in 15 minutes. Some take months or years of practice.

Easy card counting might give you a small bump. One strategy like this is called ace/five — that’s where you start with the number zero, add one for every five dealt and subtract one for every ace. If the count is more than two, you double your previous bet. If the count is less than two, you bet the minimum. It’s simple, and marginally effective across a large data set.

Another easy card counting style is the famed “I feel like I’ve seen a lot of big cards” strategy. This is the one where you’re paying like 80 percent attention, but you feel like you’ve seen a lot of big cards come out already so you scale back your bets. This somewhat resembles wearing shorts outside in February because you feel like there have been so many snowy days that some sun is due.

8 Avoiding elderly female Korean dealers

This isn’t necessarily a winning strategy but more of an “avoid losing” strategy. Simply put: If you stand up and walk away every time there’s a dealer switch and an elderly female Korean assassin takes over your table, it will probably save you thousands of dollars in your lifetime.

7 Bet incrementing

Bet incrementing is like card counting without the card counting. It’s more like streak counting. There are different systems but they all basically come down to this: If you’re winning, keep increasing your bet; if you’re losing, don’t increase your bet.

This certainly helps avoid the break-even rut that blackjack can fall into — where you sit there for hours and never swing more than 25 percent or so from your buy-in. With incrementing, you’re either blowing money quickly or raking it in quickly.

But it’s not really a system to beat the house… just one to help you channel your luck. Incrementing coupled with counting can actually increase your winning percentage (or, more accurately, shave a small amount off the house edge). But incrementing without counting is like having sexual relations with multiple people and eschewing condoms until you catch an STD, then going back to condoms again.

6 Cheating

I put this in the middle of the list because it can go either way. If you spend hours going from casino to casino searching for a rookie dealer who might occasionally expose the very bottom burn card, that’s ineffective and inefficient cheating.

If you hide cards in your sleeve or try to subtlety double your bet when you get a good hand, those are more effective cheating strategies. Sure, you’ll end up getting dragged into a windowless room in the bowels of the casino and getting beat — fittingly — with a blackjack. But you’ll win some serious cash in the process.

5 Shuffle Tracking

In most of the big Vegas casinos you can’t do this anymore — the dealer doesn’t shuffle, he just puts the cards in a machine that automatically shuffles them. (Or, if you’re more of a conspiracy theorist, that sequences them to make sure you all get screwed.)

But if you’re playing blackjack and the dealer is manually shuffling, this actually can be moderately effective. You have to pay detailed attention to the sequence that the cards come out, because you’re looking for clusters. Maybe you try to remember the number and suit of the two cards that lead up to every ace. You expect that, during a human shuffle, some of those clusters will stay together — and you might have a little edge in knowing when the aces are coming.

It requires a lot of concentration, but might actually help you make a better decision on one or two hands every two or three shoes. It’s a long-term play. Continuing the analogy motif of this list, it’s like getting three green shells on the first lap in Mario Kart 64 and holding them indefinitely, hoping that you’ll be in a situation eventually where they’ll benefit you.

4 Basic strategy and time

Basic strategy is the calling card of blackjack — if you play with proper strategy, blackjack gives you the best odds in the casino over time. (People forget the “over time” aspect. We’re a culture that freaks out over small sample sizes. They’re the only thing keeping Around the Horn on the air.)

And over time, basic strategy really can make a difference — infinite computer simulations have proven it. But you need to have the discipline to hit 12 and 13 against a 2… hit soft 18 against a 9, 10 or ace… split 8s against a 10 even if you’re on a cold streak… and refuse to take even money for blackjacks. Every single time you play, with no exceptions, for your entire life.

3 Medium-difficulty card counting

This is the kind of card counting that the common man can learn and try to employ. You don’t need an entire team of MIT-educated math geniuses to work as spotters and helpers and trainers to make it work. (It’d be hard to get that team together anyway, what with them knowing they’d be whitewashed if a movie was made about your adventures.)

These medium strategies are more advanced than the counting strategies I talked about earlier. Here you might try something like the current “hot” counting style, called the Zen Count. (You subtract one for an ace; add one for a 2, 3 or 7; add two for a 4, 5 or 6; and subtract two for a ten.) This requires practice and concentration, *might* get you kicked out of a casino but probably not, and will give you more of an advantage than you’re used to.

Of course, if you’re doing this, you can’t really drink — so that’s a $6-$32 per hour loss, depending on the efficiency of your waitress and your willingness to consume Long Island iced teas in the middle of the afternoon. So make sure to factor that in.

2 Hard card counting team effort

These are the card counting systems you would see in movies like 21 and others. (No, I can’t actually name others, I just assume there are others.) Basically, you and your genius friends develop an advanced card counting strategy. Then you all watch and card count different tables and signal each other when a table is about to start paying off. The money guy goes to that table, bets a ton, then gets the hell out as soon as the pit bosses start whispering to each other and casting furtive glances in your direction.

On the downside, this is the kind of thing that casinos are on the lookout for and that might only exist in fantasy at this point. On the upside, if you do choose this method, you get to wear cool disguises and play different characters at the table! So if you and your friends from differential calculus class started an improv troupe, you were born for this.

(Side note: I bet that improv troupe would have a kitschy name like “RDRR” or “Nothing Derivative” or “Kristen Cavalieri’s Principle.”)

1 Autistic brother

Show me the money! Feel the need for speed! I want the truth! You’re glib!

—

You may also like…

Blackjack is one of the very few casino-banked card games where the decisions players make have a direct impact on their long-term chances of winning and preserving their bankrolls. Whether you make the correct plays or not will ultimately determine whether you emerge as a long-term winner or loser.

When you join a blackjack table, the two most fundamental playing decisions you are facing are whether to hit or stand on your hand. Ironically, these two decisions rank last in the order of plays you can exercise at the blackjack table.

The reason for this is simple – unlike surrendering, splitting, and doubling, you can hit or stand on hands that comprise any number of cards whereas the other moves are possible only on two-card totals. Both plays are accompanied by specific hand gestures which differ depending on whether you join a shoe-dealt table or a pitch game.

The great thing about blackjack is that the game combines elements of luck, skill, and strategy. There is no need to rely on gut feelings in order to make the correct move. All you have to do is memorize basic blackjack strategy. It gives you the foundation of becoming a successful blackjack player by telling you when to hit your hand and when to stand.

Hitting a Hand in Blackjack

A new round at the blackjack table starts with everyone receiving two cards that comprise their starting hands. This includes the dealer who normally receives their first card up while their second card is dealt face-down. The players would either receive their two cards face-up in shoe-dealt blackjack or face-down in pitch games where only one or two decks are in play.

At this point, each player takes a good look at their initial two-card hand, checks the dealer’s exposed card, and decides whether to take a hit or not. Hitting is the first most common decision one makes at the blackjack table. It involves the player requesting additional cards on their initial hand.

Hitting On 12 In Blackjack

In multiple-deck games dealt out of a shoe, the player indicates they want to hit either with a beckoning gesture with their finger or by tapping the felt next to their two cards. In pitch games where you receive your cards face down, a hit is indicated by lightly scraping the felt with your two cards.

Players are allowed to take as many hits as they like unless the last card drawn to their hand causes it to break, i.e. go over 21. You can hit any total, with the exception of pat blackjacks which automatically stand.

The main reason for drawing additional cards is to try and improve the value of your hand. Your hitting decisions are influenced by two factors – the current total of your hand and the upcard the dealer is showing.

Standing on a Hand in Blackjack

Standing on a hand is practically the opposite of hitting. The player is satisfied with their current hand value and declines additional cards from the dealer. Similarly to hitting, this decision must be designated with a physical gesture for the purpose of hindering cheaters and preventing misunderstandings on behalf of the dealer and surveillance.

This physical motion involves waving your palm horizontally over your two cards in shoe-dealt games. The gesture is different in single-deck and double-deck games where standing is indicated by sliding the corners of your cards under the chips you have originally placed in your betting box.

Forced Standing Rules for Dealers and Their Variations

Unlike blackjack players, the house representative who deals the cards does not make any decisions when playing out their hand. Instead, blackjack dealers draw cards or stand on their hands according to the forced rules specified by the gambling establishments.

These forced dealer rules vary depending on the gambling hall and the blackjack table you play at, but are generally classified into two main groups. The dealer is either required to draw to 16 and force-stand on all totals of 17 or must draw to 16, stand on hard 17 and hit soft 17. The dealer standing rule is printed on the layout, which makes it easy for players to distinguish what table they are playing.

Which of the two dealer rules is better from the perspective of the player, though? To answer this question, we must first explain what a soft 17 is. This is a hand that contains an Ace whose value is flexible, i.e. it can be either 1 or 11, like in the following two examples – A-6 and A-2-4. Due to the fluctuating value of the Ace, one such soft hand practically has two totals, 7 and 17.

The dealer forced standing rules should be always taken into consideration because they have a direct impact on basic strategy as well as on the house edge. A total of 17 is not strong enough in blackjack where the average winning hand totals 18.5. A dealer who hits soft 17 is less susceptible to exceeding 21 and thus, losing because of the flexible value of the Ace.

If a higher-ranking card is drawn, the dealer’s Ace will count as 1. This practically makes it impossible for them to bust by taking one more card. However, if they happen to catch a small card like a deuce on the next hit, it gets them into the safe zone and they can outdraw the player, who always stands on hard 17 according to basic strategy.

A dealer who hits soft 17 (H17) increases the house edge by 0.22%. This may seem like a small increase in the casino’s advantage but nevertheless, it leads to higher hourly losses in the long term for the basic strategy player.

Assuming you play at a full table where you flat bet at the minimum of $5 and go through 60 hands per hour on average, you will lose roughly ($5 x 60 x 0.22)/100 = $0.66 per hour due to the soft 17 rule alone.

Of course, these figures apply only over the long run where thousands of hands are involved. Nevertheless, a smart blackjack player always favors tables where the dealer stands on all 17 over those where they hit soft 17.

Key Basic Strategy Plays for Hitting and Standing

Basic strategy tells blackjack players when it is the correct time to hit and when they should stand, among other things. The decision is based on the upcard of the dealer and the player’s hand total. Basic strategy is proven to reduce the house edge, but some of the hitting and standing decisions it suggests also aim at minimizing the long-term losses players incur in unfavorable situations. With that said, you cannot overcome the house edge entirely with basic strategy alone.

The correct plays are influenced by a variety of factors which include the above-mentioned dealer forced rules, the number of decks incorporated into the game, and the possible rule variations at different blackjack tables.

The strategy is normally presented in a table format. Here are several of the most important standing and hitting decisions recommended by basic strategy for multiple-deck games where the dealer force-stands on all 17s:

• Always hit totals 4 through 8 regardless of what card the dealer shows
• Stand on hard totals of 12 if the dealer exposes small cards 4 through 6 and hit your hard 12 against all other dealer cards
• Hit 16 against a dealer with a ten-value card or Ace, otherwise surrender if allowed
• Always hit soft totals 13 through 17 and stand on soft 19
• Stand on soft totals of 18 unless the dealer is showing high cards like 9, 10, and Ace. If so, hit your soft 18.
• Stand on all hard totals of 17 or higher

Hitting 12 In Blackjack

Deviations from Basic-Strategy Hitting and Standing Decisions

Learning basic strategy is an absolute must for anyone who insists on becoming a winning blackjack player. With that said, basic strategy relies on limited information. It tells you the optimal plays you can make in any given situation after you have received your first two cards and have seen the dealer’s exposed card.

However, it does not take into account the way the composition of the deck or shoe changes as more and more cards are removed from play. These changes in composition are important because they have a direct impact on the house edge.

If more ten-value cards and Aces remain to be dealt, the edge swings over in favor of the player and vice versa, the dealer has an advantage when the remaining shoe or deck is richer in small cards. Smart players have learned to exploit this peculiarity of the game by keeping track of the ratio of high to low cards that remain to be dealt.

This is known as card counting. The player keeps a running count as each card is dealt out of the shoe and then converts it into a true count. This conversion is necessary for shoe games and involves the division of the current running count by the number of decks that remain in play.

A high positive true count indicates the shoe is rich in high cards and vice versa, a negative true count means more small cards are still in play. Using this information, well-versed players would deviate from basic strategy for certain hitting and standing decisions. The plays suggested by the strategy are based on a neutral deck or shoe and are no longer optimal after the composition changes.

A Couple of Examples for Hitting and Standing Deviations

Blackjack pros resort to using indices for their playing deviations. An index is a number that tells you at what true count you must diverge from the basic strategy. Let’s use hard 12 against a dealer with a deuce as an example just to give you a better idea of how playing deviations for hitting and standing work.

A basic strategy chart for multiple-deck games under the S17 rule recommends you to hit your 12 against a 2. However, this play is no longer optimal once you arrive at a true count of +3. Now, there are more tens and face cards you can bust with. Therefore, you must deviate from basic strategy and stand on your 12 against the 2 when the true count is +3 or higher.

Another example is a hand of hard 16 against a dealer with a 9 as their upcard. According to basic strategy, you must hit your hard 16 against the 9 if surrender is unavailable. Unfortunately, this decision is a bad one on high positive counts of +5 or above. Respectively, the player stands (the pun was unintentional) better chances of winning if they refrain from drawing more cards because hitting is more likely to break their 16 in shoes that are rich in tens.

And one final example with a hard 13 versus a dealer showing a 3, in which case you should stand according to basic strategy. This may be a good idea in a neutral shoe but it becomes unprofitable on negative counts.

The index for this hand is -2, which is to say you deviate from basic strategy when the true count drops to -2 or lower by choosing to hit instead of standing. At this point, there are more small cards than high cards to help you improve your hand and minimize the risk of breaking it.

Playing deviations are great not only for hitting and standing but for all other possible moves in blackjack, like doubling, splitting, surrendering, and buying insurance. Not only do these deviations enable the player to generate more EV in the long term but they also reduce risk and help you tame variance.

With that said, it is impossible to use them without committing basic strategy to memory first, so we suggest this is where you start if you take your blackjack game seriously.